The Federal Reserve is slowly raising interest rates to prevent the U.S. economy from overheating — a plan President Trump has publicly criticized. The danger of such interference is clear, but Jerome Powell, the Fed chairman, has a plan.

Though not a trained economist, Mr. Powell is a veteran Washington operator who appears to be making allies to keep the Fed independent. Here’s more from Bloomberg Businessweek:

He grew up and earned his law degree there and made a fortune while working at D.C.-based private equity powerhouse Carlyle Group. He has deep connections to Washington’s Republican establishment. He served in the U.S. Department of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush in the early 1990s and is a member of the city’s elite Metropolitan Club, located just blocks from the White House.

He also has one trait that may serve him best of all: an ability to explain difficult concepts in a way that people who aren’t pointy-headed economists (i.e., members of Congress) can understand.

There are plenty of financial issues to worry about — private equity debt, emerging market struggles, stocks that seem to ignore trade threats and more. But none appears able to drag down the economy to its knees by itself. Which is why Paul Krugman of the NYT thinks the next slump will involve a mix of things:

The next slump won’t be a big bang like 2008, it will be a smorgasbord recession like 1990-1, the cumulation of a bunch of medium-sized issues. You might ask why multiple issues should strike at the same time. The answer, in two words, is Hyman Minsky: after a long period of stable growth, lenders and investors get complacent, and the private sector overreaches. If that is what happens, we should expect another sluggish, jobless recovery like that after the 1990-1 and 2001 recessions, except probably worse.

DealBook exclusive: The investment bank Foros hired Roberto Mendoza, a senior managing director at Atlas Advisors and a former banker at J.P. Morgan, as a managing director.

Gary Cohn denied that he remained in talks to become the next Wells Fargo C.E.O.

Goldman Sachs promoted Dan Dees, a co-head of its tech investment banking team, to co-head of investment banking.


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